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| Janusz Bugajski |
Gambling with Kosovo could be part of a wider offensive from Belgrade with Russian instructions to expand Serbia's regional position. According to Serbian Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin, all Serbs have the right to be united in one state. Like the Russians, Serbs are portrayed as long-suffering victims whom hostile powers are plotting to eliminate. Belgrade claims the right to protect Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Croatia.
The Biden administration has focused its foreign policy on opposing China's growth. A bipartisan consensus has emerged in Washington that China is America's most dangerous global adversary. And in order to stop confronting Beijing, the White House has called for a more "stable and predictable" relationship with Russia. In reality, fomenting unpredictability and instability are two of Moscow's core strategies for undermining the West, and there is no reason to give them up.
While the White House is preoccupied with China's growing military power and its threats against U.S. allies in the Far East, the Kremlin could overturn other regions. Taking advantage of the White House distractions can help spark new conflicts, and the Western Balkans remain a key target of opportunity. The recent Kosovo-Serbia border dispute over license plate recognition seems like a testament to more serious confrontations. Russian officials are encouraging the government of President Aleksandar Vucic to transform Serbia into the dominant power in the Western Balkans and thus increase Russia's influence.
In another show of strength and a demonstration of the Kremlin's military engagement with Belgrade, the Russian and Serbian air defense forces conducted joint exercises in mid-October, involving MiG-29 fighter jets. Moscow has also deployed a battery of Pantsir-S short-range anti-aircraft systems in Serbia and said it was ready to sell other air defense systems in Belgrade. As Serbia's neighbors do not possess a significant air force, the maneuvers were clearly intended as a signal to NATO that Russia will defend its key Balkan ally in the event of a regional war.
The propaganda field is also preparing for conflict. Belgrade and Moscow accuse the Kosovo government of threatening the rights and existence of the Serb minority. A similar story could be used against the Bosnian government to justify the war. The Kremlin has consistently used such claims on the Russian population in its aggressive revisionist ventures in Ukraine, Georgia, and the Baltic states. Russia is now instructing its "younger brother" - Serbia - on the methodology of regional domination and territorial division.
In one scenario, Serbian intelligence operatives could provoke interethnic confrontations within Kosovo and capitalize on the ensuing violence as a pretext for military intervention. This would put the small NATO force in Kosovo in a difficult position to confront the Serbian army. By supporting any Serbian incursions and threatening to provide direct military assistance if NATO engages, Moscow would test Biden's determination to risk a NATO-Russia war. Putin may reckon that Washington would prefer negotiations even if this means handing over Kosovo's northern municipalities to Belgrade, especially since Kosovo is not a NATO member and cannot rely on its collective defense commitments.
Kosovo Gambling could be part of a wider offensive from Belgrade with Russian instructions to expand Belgrade's regional position. According to Serbian Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin, all Serbs have the right to be united in one state. Like the Russians, Serbs are portrayed as long-suffering victims whom hostile powers are plotting to eliminate. Belgrade claims the right to protect Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Croatia. In addition to destabilizing Kosovo, Belgrade's current focus is on deepening Bosnia's divisions and enabling the Serb entity to threaten secession. It also cooperates with Serbian nationalists in the Montenegrin coalition government to change Montenegro's independence and pro-Western policies.
As Vucic seeks glory as a unifier of "Serbian lands", Putin manipulates him to serve Russia's geopolitical goals. Vucic owes a permanent debt to Moscow for blocking Kosovo's entry into the United Nations, and Serbia's economic dependence on Russia is expanding, especially in the energy sector, where it recently joined a new Russian natural gas connection through Bulgaria and Turkey.
Serbia is also being treated as a Russian military base and a center of regional subversion. It has been armed with a variety of weapons in recent years, including fighter jets, tanks, helicopters, and anti-aircraft systems. The Russian-Serbian "humanitarian center" near the border with Kosovo serves as a facility for intelligence gathering and special operations for Moscow. Serbia is also developing close ties with the Russian-controlled Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), targeted as a NATO multinational counterpart.
Through a host of Kremlin-controlled tentacles, Serbia is being held hostage by Russia in the Balkans. Moscow is convinced that any move by Serbia towards NATO membership will not be tolerated and could result in the replacement of Vucic and his government. The Kremlin's support for various nationalist groups in Serbia, its wide-ranging influence in Serbia's information space, its intimate ties to the Serbian Orthodox Church, and its penetration of key Serbian institutions are intended to keep Vucic in line and prevent it from coming closer to integrative ties with Western institutions.
Serbia offers a valuable opportunity for Putin to foment armed conflict in a still volatile Balkan region. This would help expand Russia's influence, divert Western attention from the conflicts Moscow is building in its neighborhood, and mask the growing blow of dissent within the Russian Federation. At some point, Vucic may be seduced or provoked into a military confrontation with one of Serbia's neighbors and then ask help from Moscow.
With the EU without the wheel and the US focused on China and other international crises, the Kremlin can reckon that the reduced risk of Western military intervention is worth taking.