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| Graph showing the number of children per woman in Albania for the years 2001, 2022 and 2023. Source: VOA |
In Albania, all demographic indicators influencing population aging are continuously worsening. The average age is 39 years, natural population growth is on the brink of turning negative, and high emigration, mainly of young people, is rapidly aging the population. Experts note significant challenges, with the country inadequately prepared to address them. This phenomenon has affected many developed countries, but the consequences in Albania are more severe due to its weaker economy.
Albania has witnessed an aging population in recent years. In the last 10 years, the percentage of the population over 65 years old has increased from 11% in 2011 to around 16%, while the age group up to 14 years old has decreased from almost 21% to 16%. The average age of the population has risen to 39 years from 33 a decade ago. All demographic indicators affecting population aging have deteriorated, with a significant decline in birth rates, down 30% in the last decade and another 10% just last year compared to the previous year. The current birth rate is 1.2 children per woman of reproductive age, well below the 2.1 needed for population replacement. Medical professionals are feeling the impact.
"I'm pleased when a woman comes with her third child because such cases are rare. The age of women giving birth for the first time has increased from 19-21 years in the early '90s to 29-30 years today. This leads to a reduction in the population because the second child is delayed, resulting in fewer births," says Astrit Bimbashi, Head of the Obstetrics Service at the Koço Gliozheni Maternity Hospital.
Despite the government introducing financial incentives for mothers giving birth (40,000 lekë for the first child, with progressive increases for the second child at 80,000 lekë, and the third at 120,000 lekë, and so on), this initiative did not impact the increase in birth rates.
Experts emphasize the need for sustainable policies for maternal care, moving away from globalist reproductive health strategies, given Albania's continuously declining population.
"We strongly reacted to the recent reproductive health strategy, as a new law will be based on it. Unfortunately, this strategy used the word 'contraception' 217 times, while it mentioned 'pregnant women' only once, which is not suitable for our situation where we have almost zero natality. This is why we are demanding to remove the Feto-Maternal service from reproductive health. Ultimately, this is a globalist policy, and we are a small country. We are neither China nor India, to follow their policies," continued Astrit Bimbashi, Head of the Obstetrics Service at the Koço Gliozheni Maternity Hospital.
According to a survey published by INSTAT on emigration for the years 2011-2019, the age group of 20-39 years constitutes around 68% of the total of approximately 177,000 citizens who have left the country. The same survey indicates that 50% of them are young people aged 15-29.
Experts say the departure of young people is rapidly aging the population, and the social consequences will be severe in the future.
"The departure of young people from the country will be felt later when the absolute number of people making up the workforce, if these rates continue, will significantly decrease, and there won't be other mechanisms to retain or replace them," said Elvin Meka, Dean of the Faculty of Business Administration and Justice at Tirana Business University College, speaking to Voice of America.
Researcher Nevila Xhindi believes that every society needs continuous fresh ideas.
"The natural question arises, with whom? Entrepreneurship and innovation require new minds, new energy, and new work. The working-age population in Albania has significantly reduced. Ideas, thoughts, and entrepreneurial initiatives have decreased. The source of financing has changed from the government, which cannot provide funds for innovation and new thinking but must use them to cover pensions, healthcare, and all social services following this process," Nevila Xhindi, Researcher, told Voice of America.
Authorities claim they have formulated a specific 7-year strategy and have enacted a youth law to curb the emigration of young people. For young people who are neither working nor in school, the government offers job training, employment opportunities, or professional internships. Among the youth policies, as explained by the Ministry for Youth and Children, Bora Muzhaqi, in a written response to Voice of America, are 6-12-month coding training programs to enable young people to enter the international job market without leaving Albania, increased salaries in the public administration, housing loans for young couples in certain sectors, and improvements in basic and higher education infrastructure.
However, the challenges of an aging population are numerous. Life expectancy in Albania has increased by almost 2 years compared to a decade ago.
Experts say the pension scheme, i.e., the ratio of contributors to beneficiaries, is being damaged by the aging population phenomenon.
"The working-age population is decreasing, and the population under working age from 0-14 years old is lower than the population entering retirement. In 2013, the contributor-to-beneficiary ratio was 1:1, it improved in 2015 to 1.32 contributors per pensioner. After 2018, demographic processes started to affect it, and as a result, the contributor-to-pensioner ratio fell to 1.17 last year," said Koço Broka, an economics expert, to Voice of America.
Julian Bejko, a sociology professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Tirana, says the consequences of an aging population are significant, especially in countries like Albania with weak economies and deficiencies in social services.
"Aging brings the need for a growing logistics system in maintaining these people. This logistics requires people. We lack doctors, nurses, and other professions necessary for their care. This cannot be resolved by involving medical students in diplomacy," Julian Bejko, Sociology Professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences, UT, told Voice of America.
Economic expert Elvin Meka observes that with the continuous aging of the population, even healthcare structures will face difficulties.
"The trend will continue in the next 5 or 10 years, and there will be a need for more healthcare services. Publicly funded healthcare or hospital structures will come under increasing pressure, and there will be an increasing demand for funds and additional investments. These funds will have to come from somewhere, they will be taken from somewhere to be added to the supportive infrastructure of healthcare," Elvin Meka, Dean of the Faculty of Business Administration and Justice at Tirana Business University College told Voice of America.
Voice of America sought a response from the Ministry of Health and Social Protection regarding policies on births and reproductive health but did not receive a reply. On the other hand, a recent report by the World Bank emphasizes that Albania's population is aging much faster than the group of countries with high average incomes to which it belongs. The percentage of the elderly dependent on the working-age population is nearly the same as in high-income countries, at 16%, whereas for countries like Albania, it is 8%. The report states that countries like Albania must face the challenges of developed countries when it comes to an aging population, meaning they need to compensate for a shrinking workforce to finance pensions and care for an aging population. The World Bank's concern remains that many countries like Albania with moderate incomes may age before they become wealthy.