Albania is facing a steep population decline driven by high emigration and an aging population. According to the latest United Nations projections in the "World Population Prospects 2024 Review," Albania ranks as the country with the sharpest drop in fertility rates globally. By 2054, Albania’s fertility rate is expected to decline by 15%, the steepest fall worldwide.
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Following Albania, other countries projected to see a significant decline in fertility rates include Armenia, Moldova, and Montenegro. The UN highlights that fertility levels, or the average number of live births per woman, have sharply decreased in many nations over the past decades. Globally, the fertility rate currently stands at 2.25 live births per woman, a full child less than a generation ago. In Albania, the fertility rate is even lower, at less than 1.2 children per woman, far below the replacement level needed to sustain the population.
In most societies, both children and the elderly consume more than they produce, which puts additional strain on a shrinking workforce. The UN warns that for nearly all countries where population growth has peaked, the window of opportunity for accelerated economic growth driven by a youthful population has closed. However, even in countries where the working-age population (between 20 and 64 years) is shrinking, there are still ways to boost economic growth.
One of the UN’s recommended strategies for countries experiencing population decline is to become more inclusive by integrating traditionally excluded groups—such as women, the elderly, and people with disabilities—into the formal labor market. Another approach is to increase worker productivity by investing in human capital development and continuous training, and by leveraging technology, including robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence (AI). Immigration could also help alleviate short-term labor shortages caused by an aging population.
While international migration can ease some of the immediate challenges, it cannot reverse the long-term trends of population decline or aging. Migration should not be viewed as a long-term solution to the demographic transition, a process that is ultimately universal and irreversible.
In countries like Albania, where fertility rates are already below replacement levels, emigration of people of reproductive age could further accelerate the population decline. In fact, in 62% of countries with low fertility rates, emigration is expected to contribute to a further reduction in population numbers by 2054, with Albania being one of them.
Earlier UN projections also placed Albania among the countries with the most significant population decline between 2024 and 2054. Alongside countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Puerto Rico, and Moldova, Albania is projected to experience a population decrease of around 14% over the next 30 years, one of the highest global rates of population decline.